📊 Source: Cotality US Home Price Insights, June 2025

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🌴 Florida: From Boom to Breather

Florida accounts for 4 of the top 10 declining markets. After years of record-breaking growth driven by migration and low interest rates, the state is now experiencing a “course correction.”

• 🔻 Cape Coral tops the list with a -6.5% drop
• 🔢 Median home price: $390,000 (now below the national median)
• ⚡ Five Florida cities—Cape Coral, Lakeland, North Port, St. Petersburg, and West Palm Beach—are among the most at-risk for continued declines

📈 Many Florida metros saw their peak in mid-to-late 2023 and have declined since, returning to 2022 price levels. Rising mortgage rates and reduced affordability are major contributors.

🌎 Texas: Rapid Growth Meets Reality

Texas places four metros on the list, including:

• 📍 McAllen: -5.1%
• 📍 Victoria: -4.5%
• 📍 Waco: -3.1%
• 📍 Eagle Pass: -2.7%

Texas has also reported a state-level decline of -0.7% year-over-year. As construction ramped up and affordability waned, the market began rebalancing. These pullbacks may be tied to local economic dynamics, including the energy sector.

🌄 Other Notable Decliners

• 🔍 Logan, Utah ranks #3 with a -5.4% drop. The pandemic boom drove prices too high too fast.
• 📍 Lake Charles, Louisiana rounds out the list, likely influenced by local economic shifts.

📊 Hot vs. Cool: A Tale of Two Markets

While these markets are cooling, others are red hot. Top performers include:

• 🌾 Kokomo, IN: +13.4%
• 🌾 Decatur, IL: +12.5%
• 🌾 Syracuse, NY: +11.1%

These gains are largely in affordable Midwestern and Northeastern metros benefiting from positive net migration, stable jobs markets, a lower cost of living, limited housing inventory and affordable house prices.

💼 What It Means for Buyers & Sellers

💳 Buyers

• Less competition and room to negotiate
• Be pro-active: don’t assume prices will keep falling indefinitely
• Think long-term, not just about timing the market

📅 Sellers

• Adjust expectations: price competitively
• Homes may sit longer on the market
• Focus on cost-effective value-add improvements
• Offer concessions to buyers

📊 Investors

• Use conservative underwriting
• Look for property deals that cashflow today
• Focus on more price-resilient metro markets in the Midwest and Northeast
• Don’t overleverage
• Look for remodelled homes not fixer-uppers
• Negotiate seller concessions to buy down your mortgage rate
• Look for motivated/distressed sellers

It’s very likely that increased transparency on tariffs, declining recession fears, and more housing inventory could bring renewed confidence and activity to the market.

Uncertain buyers hesitate. When that uncertain becomes certain – which it always does – buyers will returns and prices will start climbing again.

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📈 Final Thoughts

This isn’t a crash—it’s a correction – and it’s regional. In many cases, it’s a much-needed healthy one.

Markets like Florida and Texas, which ran hot, are now finding their footing again. As always, real estate is local, and national averages can’t tell the full story. These top 10 declining markets serve as a clear signal: the era of runaway growth is pausing, and for many, that could be very good news.