US Pending Home Sales Analysis – Trends & Expert Forecasts
David Garner
David Garner
FREE DOWNLOAD: 10 Costly Mistakes Foreigners Make Buying U.S. Real Estate
📊 US Pending Home Sales Report: Trends & Forecast 2025–2026
Ever wonder what those “pending” signs really mean when you see them outside homes? They’re more than just a step before closing — pending home sales are a leading indicator of real estate market momentum.
In short, a pending sale means a buyer and seller have agreed on price and terms, signed the contract, but haven’t closed yet. It’s a peek into the near-future of real estate activity — and that future, lately, has been shifting in interesting ways.
Let’s break it down with fresh data, regional trends, and what’s likely ahead through 2026. 📅
Related: Best US Property Markets for Foreign Investors
📉 April 2025 Snapshot: A Nationwide Dip
As of April 2025, pending home sales dropped 6.3% month-over-month, according to the National Association of Realtors. That pushed the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) down to 71.3, where 100 represents 2001’s average contract activity level.
Here’s how things looked regionally:
| Region | Monthly Change | PHSI (Apr ’25) |
|---|---|---|
| Northeast | -0.6% | 62.1 |
| Midwest | -5.0% | 73.5 |
| South | -7.7% | 85.9 |
| West | -8.9% | 53.3 |
🔍 Year-over-year, only the Midwest posted gains (+2.2%). The West (-6.5%), South (-3.0%), and Northeast (-3.0%) all declined compared to April 2024.
Related: The Top 10 Most and Least Affordable Housing Markets in the US in 2025
🏦 Why the Slowdown? Blame Mortgage Rates
According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, the culprit is clear: elevated mortgage rates. Even as housing inventory has reached five-year highs in some markets, higher borrowing costs are sidelining buyers — especially first-timers.
📈 “Inventory is up, but buyers are hesitating. Affordability remains the top barrier.”
With mortgage rates still hovering near 7%, the cost of financing is significantly reducing what buyers can afford, and pushing many to postpone their plans.
Related: How to Buy Property in the USA as a Foreigner
🔮 Looking Ahead: What’s Next for 2025–2026?
While the future is always unpredictable, here are four key factors likely to shape the trajectory of pending home sales:
1️⃣ Mortgage Rates
If rates come down in response to economic easing or Fed policy shifts, demand could rebound. But if they remain elevated or increase, expect continued buyer pullback.
2️⃣ Housing Inventory
More listings are good for buyers — less competition and more leverage. But if inventory outpaces demand, prices may soften and time on market will rise.
3️⃣ Economic Conditions
Job growth, inflation, and consumer confidence all matter. A strong economy tends to fuel housing activity, while uncertainty slows it down.
4️⃣ Regional Dynamics
The Midwest stands out for its affordability, with median prices 25% below the national average. Don’t be surprised if it continues outperforming more expensive coastal markets.
Related: The Hidden Wealth in America’s Affordable Housing Markets
📈 My Forecast: What I Expect in 2025
Expect modest market movement for the rest of 2025, with inventory growth offset by rate-related buyer hesitancy.
Regional trends will diverge — affordable markets (like the Midwest) may outperform.
Sellers may need to adjust pricing expectations as negotiation power shifts to buyers.
Related: US Housing Affordability is the Gold Standard Metric for Property Investors
🧭 2026 Scenarios: What Could Play Out?
| Scenario | Description | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| ✅ Rate Relief | Fed begins easing in late 2025 | Buyer demand rebounds, pending sales rise |
| 🔒 Rates Stay Elevated | Inflation proves sticky | Continued buyer slowdown, flat pending sales |
| ⚠️ Economic Shock | Recession or job losses hit | Demand falls further, sales drop |
Related: US Cities With The Most Home Sale Cancellations
🏡 Why the Midwest Shines
With a median price of just $313,000, the Midwest offers value that’s attracting cost-conscious buyers. It was the only region to see year-over-year sales growth in April, and could continue to be a safe haven for buyers in 2025–2026.
Related: Is the US heading Towards a Property Market Crash and Debt Bubble in 2025
📅 12-Month Pending Sales Trends: Jan ’24–Jan ’25
| Month | Northeast | Midwest | South | West | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2025 | 63.4 | 72.8 | 81.0 | 57.6 | 70.6 |
| Dec 2024 | 62.3 | 74.3 | 90.6 | 57.7 | 74.2 |
| Nov 2024 | 67.8 | 78.1 | 93.1 | 64.3 | 78.5 |
| Oct 2024 | 68.7 | 77.8 | 89.8 | 64.0 | 77.3 |
| Sept 2024 | 65.6 | 75.0 | 89.0 | 64.0 | 75.8 |
| Aug 2024 | 61.6 | 70.0 | 83.4 | 58.3 | 70.6 |
| July 2024 | 64.6 | 67.8 | 83.5 | 56.2 | 70.2 |
| June 2024 | 65.5 | 73.5 | 89.3 | 58.4 | 74.3 |
| May 2024 | 63.6 | 70.4 | 83.7 | 56.7 | 70.8 |
| April 2024 | 62.9 | 70.7 | 88.6 | 55.9 | 72.3 |
| March 2024 | 65.1 | 78.1 | 95.8 | 61.0 | 78.2 |
| Feb 2024 | 63.4 | 81.6 | 89.5 | 57.1 | 75.6 |
| Jan 2024 | 63.6 | 73.7 | 88.5 | 61.1 | 74.4 |
📌 Note: Values reflect seasonally adjusted annual rates in thousands.
Related: Top US Housing Markets for First Time Investors in 2025
ℹ️ What Is the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)?
The Pending Home Sales Index tracks signed contracts on existing homes — not yet closed — and acts as a forward-looking gauge of market activity.
Index Level of 100 = 2001 activity
Based on ~40% of MLS data
Most pending sales close within 1–2 months
It’s one of the best early indicators of where the housing market is headed next.
Related: Top 10 US Counties for Single Family Home Investors
🧠 Final Thoughts
Pending home sales give us a snapshot of buyer sentiment and market momentum. The April 2025 dip is a reminder of how quickly conditions can change when mortgage rates shift.
Heading into 2026, we’re watching interest rates, inventory trends, and regional affordability closely. Whether you’re buying, selling, or simply staying informed — this is a time for smart decisions and real-time market awareness.
FREE DOWNLOAD: 10 Costly Mistakes Foreigners Make Buying U.S. Real Estate
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