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Daily US Mortgage Rate Update: June 14, 2025

Published On: June 14th, 2025

Today, June 14, 2025, the U.S. mortgage market shows a slight upward trend in the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rate, increasing by 3 basis points from a week ago. This minor shift back up comes as the market continues to react to economic signals and investor sentiment.

For prospective homebuyers and those considering refinancing, these daily movements provide crucial insights. Let’s examine today’s rates, analyze the current market dynamics, and discuss their specific implications for international investors.

Key Takeaways:

• 30-Year Fixed Rate Uptick: The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased slightly by 3 basis points from last week to 6.87%.
• Mixed Movements: Other fixed rates show varied movements, while refinance rates generally held stable or saw minor changes.
• Economic Context: Rates continue to be influenced by broader economic data and Federal Reserve policy expectations.
• Foreign National Mortgages: Specialized financing options remain vital for international investors, whose rates are influenced by overall market trends.

Today’s Mortgage Rates Overview

The market has seen minor adjustments across various loan types today. While the 30-year fixed rate saw a slight increase, other products remained relatively stable.

Commentary: The 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage saw a modest increase to 6.87%, rising 3 basis points from a week ago. This indicates a slight firming of rates after some recent dips. Other fixed-rate products like the 20-year, 15-year, and 10-year fixed rates held relatively steady, with rates at 6.60%, 6.06%, and 6.06% respectively. The 5-Year ARM also registered at 6.15%. Precise weekly changes for all loan types are not consistently available across daily reported sources, hence some “N/A” entries.

Today’s Refinance Rates Overview

For homeowners considering refinancing, rates showed a slight easing for the 30-year fixed option.

Commentary: The 30-Year Fixed Refinance rate saw a minimal decrease of 1 basis point to 6.83%, with its APR also decreasing slightly to 6.96%. The 15-Year Fixed Refinance rate held at approximately 6.16% with an APR of 6.25%. The 5-Year ARM Refinance (5/6 ARM data used for general ARM trends) was around 7.13% with an APR of 7.26%. These figures suggest a relatively stable environment for those considering refinancing options.

In-depth Analysis and Commentary

Today’s minor uptick in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate reflects the ongoing sensitivity of the US treasury bond market to various economic indicators. Mortgage rates closely track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which reacts to expectations about inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and overall economic growth.

While most forecasts lean toward potential rate reductions later in the year, the path will likely not be straightforward. Any economic data pointing to stronger-than-expected inflation or a resilient labour market can lead to bond yields firming up. That’s ultimately going to drive mortgage rates higher. On the other hand, signs of a cooling economy could provide downward pressure.

What the Experts are Saying – Mortgage Rate Forecasts

For the most part, the experts seem to agree. US mortgage rates are likely to remain in the upper 6% range through 2025, with some analysts predicting a slight pullback to the lower 6% range. All of them warn to expect continued volatility within the 6% to 7% range.

Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist (June 12, 2025):

• Quote: “Mortgage rates have moved within a narrow range for the past few months and this week is no different. Rate stability, improving inventory and slower house price growth are an encouraging combination this National Homeownership Month.”
• Forecast: Implies continued stability within the current range.
• Source: Globe Newswire

Greg McBride, CFA, Chief Financial Analyst for Bankrate (June 9, 2025):

• Quote: “The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will spend most of the year in the 6s, with a short-lived spike above 7 percent, but never getting below 6 percent. Continued economic growth and worries about inflation and government debt will keep mortgage rates elevated.”
• Forecast: Rates to remain primarily in the 6% range, not dropping below 6% in 2025.
• Source: Bankrate

Keith Gumbinger, Vice President at HSH.com (June 10, 2025):

• Quote: “There’s way too much uncertainty as to what becomes of the tariffs, inflation and the broader economy. There may be no cut at all if conditions don’t support it.” He also highlights, “It’s most often the case that longer-term interest rates begin to decline before the Fed cuts rates.”
• Forecast: Significant uncertainty, potential for no Fed cuts, implying sustained elevated rates.
• Source: CNET

Nicole Rueth, Market Leader, The Rueth Team of Movement Mortgage (June 14, 2025):

• Quote: “Rates will stay in the 6.75% to 7.25% range unless the Fed signals multiple cuts soon and backs it up with data. Homebuyers waiting on rates to drop drastically might be disappointed.”
• Forecast: Rates to largely remain in the upper 6% to lower 7% range.
• Source: CNET

Chen Zhao, Redfin’s Head of Economic Research (June 10, 2025):

• Quote: “Mortgage rates are likely to stay high in 2025, probably bouncing around 7 percent for the year. As long as the tariffs remain high, there will be a worry about persistently high inflation that the Fed cannot ignore.”
• Forecast: Rates to hover around 7% for 2025, influenced by inflationary pressures from tariffs.
• Source: Redfin

Melissa Cohn, Regional Vice President at William Raveis Mortgage (June 9, 2025):

• Quote: “Bond yields will only drop if the rate of inflation continues to drop and the economy weakens. If inflation were to fire back up, that could cause rates to go up.”
• Forecast: Rates are highly sensitive to inflation and economic strength.
• Source: CNET

Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist for Bright MLS (April 30, 2025):

• Quote: “Mortgage rates will probably be volatile in May, ‘because of growing uncertainty in the economy. It is getting harder to predict which way mortgage rates will ultimately head’.”
• Forecast: Expect continued volatility due to economic uncertainty.
• Source: Globe Newswire

Fannie Mae (May 2025 Forecast, updated June 3, 2025):

• Forecast: Anticipates the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to gradually fall to 6.1% by the end of 2025 and 5.8% by the end of 2026.
• Source: Fannie Mae

Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) (June 11, 2025):

• Forecast: Projects the MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate to trend around 6.30% in 2026 and 6.00% in 2027. For Q2 2025, their forecast was 7.0%.
• Source: Trading Economics

For property investors and homebuyers, this emphasizes the need for vigilance. Even small fluctuations can impact long-term affordability and investment returns. While rates may not return to historical lows anytime soon, they are still below historical averages when dating back to 1971 (around 7.8%). This suggests that current rates, while elevated compared to the recent past, are still within a reasonable historical context.

Foreign National Mortgages: A Niche for International Investors

For international investors looking to acquire U.S. real estate, conventional mortgage options available to U.S. citizens and residents may not always be accessible. This is where specialized “Foreign National Mortgages” come into play, designed to cater to the unique circumstances of non-resident aliens. These loans typically involve different underwriting criteria, often requiring higher down payments and sometimes different documentation.

Two common types US mortgages for foreigners that are particularly relevant for investors are:

1. DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio) Loans: These are popular for investment properties because they qualify the borrower based on the property’s potential rental income rather than the borrower’s personal income. The DSCR is a ratio that compares the property’s net operating income to its debt service (mortgage payments).
2. Traditional Foreign National Loans: These are more akin to conventional mortgages but are specifically tailored for foreign nationals who may not have a U.S. credit history or extensive U.S. income documentation. They typically require verification of foreign income, assets, and sometimes proof of a long-standing banking relationship.

Here’s an illustrative table of example rates and terms for these specialized foreign national loan products.

Please note: These are illustrative example rates and terms only and will vary significantly based on the lender, borrower’s financial profile, property type, and prevailing market conditions.

 

Commentary on Foreign National Mortgages: As an international investor, understanding these specialized loan products is crucial for financing your U.S. real estate acquisitions. While their interest rates might be slightly higher and LTVs lower compared to the lowest conventional U.S. rates, they provide a vital pathway to leverage your investment. DSCR loans are particularly attractive for their focus on property performance, simplifying the application process for investors with established rental income streams. Traditional foreign national loans cater to those who prefer to qualify based on their robust financial standing in their home country.

Conclusion

Today’s slight increase in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate highlights the dynamic nature of the U.S. real estate financing market. International investors, US homebuyers are well-advised to keep a close eye through 2025.

Despite current fluctuations, the U.S. remains an attractive market, especially when approached with a clear understanding of financing options, including specialized foreign national mortgages. Always consult with a qualified mortgage professional specializing in international financing to explore the best options tailored to your specific circumstances and investment goals.